21956 County 2

Mantrap, MN 56467

$189,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,342/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nevis Public School District (rural): math 50% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #66 of 301 in MN (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nevis Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #130 of 857 statewide, top 18%, 333 students, 60% FRL); Nevis Secondary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #166 of 471 statewide, top 39%, 264 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Hubbard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hubbard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.