21956 County 2 · Mantrap, MN 56467

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1993 4.75 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set between towering pine trees you will find this Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 3 Bathroom on 4.75 Acres. Home Features: Open Concept, Kitchen Island, Large Master Suite, and a Full unfinished basement. Detached garage and slab in place with infloor tubing run in it for future building. Amazing setting and just on the edge of town on well maintained paved county road.

Key facts

• Open space
• 4.75 acres
• Full basement

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• 4.75 ACRES
• OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 4.75 acres (approximately 340 x 640)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Detached garage (1 car) — approximately 25 x 20
• Utilities: Private water with 4-inch submersible well; Private sewer with tank and drainage field; Electric and propane fuel options
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home; One story (levels: one); Entry/main living on upper level; Above-grade finished area 1,400; total building area 2,800
• Construction: Block foundation; Construction material: Other; Roof age over 8 years
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Medium tree coverage; Road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath on the main level; 1 three-quarter primary bath; 1 half bath in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Fuel tank (rented); Breakfast bar / kitchen-dining room; Full unfinished basement with block foundation; Main-level laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Electric water heater; Rented fuel tank (propane)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nevis Public School District (rural): math 50% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #66 of 301 in MN (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nevis Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #130 of 857 statewide, top 18%, 333 students, 60% FRL); Nevis Secondary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #166 of 471 statewide, top 39%, 264 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Hubbard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hubbard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,171 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $90,912
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $277,324
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56467

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $834/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $155,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-141	+0% $-195	+5% $-249	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-243	+0% $-195	+5% $-148	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-147	base $-195	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $189,900 693-char remark
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $194,900 Active 693-char remark
20. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus $130,000
21. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus $130,000 Sold 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Set between towering pine trees you will find this Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 3 Bathroom on 4.75 Acres. Home Features: Open Concept, Kitchen Island, Large Master Suite, and a Full unfinished basement. Detached garage and slab in place with infloor tubing run in it for future building. Amazing setting and just on the edge of town on well maintained paved county road.

22. 2022-08-03
    status Pending 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Set between towering pine trees you will find this Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 3 Bathroom on 4.75 Acres. Home Features: Open Concept, Kitchen Island, Large Master Suite, and a Full unfinished basement. Detached garage and slab in place with infloor tubing run in it for future building. Amazing setting and just on the edge of town on well maintained paved county road.

23. 2022-07-19
    listed $130,000 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Set between towering pine trees you will find this Beautiful 3-Bedroom, 3 Bathroom on 4.75 Acres. Home Features: Open Concept, Kitchen Island, Large Master Suite, and a Full unfinished basement. Detached garage and slab in place with infloor tubing run in it for future building. Amazing setting and just on the edge of town on well maintained paved county road.

24. 2020-08-31
    historical
25. 2020-04-01
    listed $125,000 Active
26. 2020-02-16
    historical
27. 2019-08-16
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $834 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$646/yr (+$54/mo · 77.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$834
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$5,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723370
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,293
• Composite: 47.46/100
• National rank: #2281
• State rank: #66 of 301 in MN

Livability — Mantrap

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,750

Population outlook (Hubbard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 20,275 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 19,429 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 18,093 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 14,903 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 10,994 · -46.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hubbard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.4% · R 64.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.93%
• Current HPI: 293.3438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+18.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $194,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-19 Listed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-01 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-16 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.