4128 W Bella Vista St

Lakeland, FL 33810

$229,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 436 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$810
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,384/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.80%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• It's been on market 436 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Clem Churchwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 708 students, 53% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $230k implies a 501% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 436 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.