4128 W Bella Vista St · Lakeland, FL 33810

$229,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured · 433 Days on market

Built 1998 0.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL OFFERS MUST BE ENTERED AS AUCTION OFFERS. BUYER AND BUYER'S AGENT MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO SUBMITTING AN OFFER. COMMUNICATION WILL BE SENT TO BIDDERS WITH RESULTS & NEXT SETS FOR THE ACCEPTED OFFER, WHICH COULD TAKE UP TO 3 DAYS. PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED. OCCUPANTS ARE NOT TO BE DISTURBED OR CONTACTED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR INSPECTIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. SOLD AS IS. ALL OFFERS ARE SUBJECT TO SELLER'S CONDITIONS & FINAL APPROVAL

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Approximately 1 acre
• Split floor plan

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• APPROXIMATELY 1 ACRE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as Residential — Manufactured Home; Lot roughly 0.93 acres (approx. 83 x 207); Living area reported at 1,980 square feet
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association (HOA) indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed/BB internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room located inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 433 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $230k implies a 501% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 433 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.80%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-44,832
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-49,455
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $213,211

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-36	+0% $-115	+5% $-195	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-210	+0% $-115	+5% $-20	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-57	base $-115	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 433 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 432 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 431 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 430 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 428 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 424 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 423 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 422 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 419 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 417 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 416 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 415 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $229,900
15. 2026-04-17
    price $234,900
16. 2026-04-02
    status Active
17. 2026-03-25
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-04
    status Active
19. 2026-02-24
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-18
    price $244,900
21. 2026-02-05
    price $249,000
22. 2025-11-17
    price $253,900
23. 2025-10-14
    status Active
24. 2025-09-17
    status Pending
25. 2025-09-08
    price $254,900
26. 2025-07-18
    price $264,950
27. 2025-06-04
    price $274,950
28. 2025-05-16
    price $279,950
29. 2025-04-16
    price $281,950
30. 2025-04-01
    price $287,400
31. 2025-02-27
    listed $289,900 Active
32. 2015-12-02
    soldstatus $38,250 Sold 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    ALL OFFERS MUST BE ENTERED AS AUCTION OFFERS. BUYER AND BUYER'S AGENT MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO SUBMITTING AN OFFER. COMMUNICATION WILL BE SENT TO BIDDERS WITH RESULTS & NEXT SETS FOR THE ACCEPTED OFFER, WHICH COULD TAKE UP TO 3 DAYS. PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED. OCCUPANTS ARE NOT TO BE DISTURBED OR CONTACTED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR INSPECTIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. SOLD AS IS. ALL OFFERS ARE SUBJECT TO SELLER'S CONDITIONS & FINAL APPROVAL

33. 2015-11-09
    status Pending 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    ALL OFFERS MUST BE ENTERED AS AUCTION OFFERS. BUYER AND BUYER'S AGENT MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO SUBMITTING AN OFFER. COMMUNICATION WILL BE SENT TO BIDDERS WITH RESULTS & NEXT SETS FOR THE ACCEPTED OFFER, WHICH COULD TAKE UP TO 3 DAYS. PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED. OCCUPANTS ARE NOT TO BE DISTURBED OR CONTACTED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR INSPECTIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. SOLD AS IS. ALL OFFERS ARE SUBJECT TO SELLER'S CONDITIONS & FINAL APPROVAL

34. 2015-10-14
    listed $38,250 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    ALL OFFERS MUST BE ENTERED AS AUCTION OFFERS. BUYER AND BUYER'S AGENT MUST REGISTER PRIOR TO SUBMITTING AN OFFER. COMMUNICATION WILL BE SENT TO BIDDERS WITH RESULTS & NEXT SETS FOR THE ACCEPTED OFFER, WHICH COULD TAKE UP TO 3 DAYS. PROPERTY IS OCCUPIED. OCCUPANTS ARE NOT TO BE DISTURBED OR CONTACTED UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR INSPECTIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE. SOLD AS IS. ALL OFFERS ARE SUBJECT TO SELLER'S CONDITIONS & FINAL APPROVAL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$6,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $-175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+501.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $253,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $264,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $274,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $279,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $281,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $287,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-27 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-02 Sold (MLS) $38,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-14 Listed $38,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid