4158 Route 16

Weston Mills, NY 14743

$154,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · Built 1864 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,176/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hinsdale Central School District (town): math 60% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #297 of 755 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1864 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1864 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.