4158 Route 16 · Weston Mills, NY 14743

$154,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1864 0.52 ac lot $107/sqft · 12% above area Est $168k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a flexible layout with first-floor living options, this Hinsdale, NY home provides both space and versatility. The heart of the home features a large kitchen complete with a cozy dining nook and a wood stove—perfect for gathering and staying warm during those Western New York winters. Just off the kitchen, you’ll find a generous living room highlighted by beautiful hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Upstairs, you’ll find three additional bedrooms along with a second full bathroom, providing ample space for family, guests, or a home office setup. Step outside to enjoy the back deck, ideal for relaxing or entertaining, all while overlooking a spacious half-acre lot that offers room to roam, garden, or play. A 2-car detached garage provides great storage and convenience, along with additional parking space. With its combination of charm, space, and functionality, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living while still being just a short drive to Olean and surrounding amenities.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Natural light
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COZY DINING NOOK
• WOOD STOVE
• GENEROUS LIVING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hinsdale Central School District (town): math 60% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #297 of 755 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1864 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,215 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1864 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,646
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -7.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $55,361
• Equity at exit: $120,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $169,413
• Equity at exit: $243,311

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14743

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,292/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $122,866

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-137	+0% $-181	+5% $-225	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-226	+0% $-181	+5% $-137	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-142	base $-181	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $154,900 Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a flexible layout with first-floor living options, this Hinsdale, NY home provides both space and versatility. The heart of the home features a large kitchen complete with a cozy dining nook and a wood stove—perfect for gathering and staying warm during those Western New York winters. Just off the kitchen, you’ll find a generous living room highlighted by beautiful hardwood floors and plenty of natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. Upstairs, you’ll find three additional bedrooms along with a second full bathroom, providing ample space for family, guests, or a home office setup. Step outside to enjoy the back deck, ideal for relaxing or entertaining, all while overlooking a spacious half-acre lot that offers room to roam, garden, or play. A 2-car detached garage provides great storage and convenience, along with additional parking space. With its combination of charm, space, and functionality, this home is a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living while still being just a short drive to Olean and surrounding amenities.

18. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus $112,900
19. 2023-11-03
    soldstatus $112,900 Closed Sale or Rented 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

20. 2023-08-31
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

21. 2023-08-25
    price $112,900 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

22. 2023-08-09
    price $114,900 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

23. 2023-08-02
    status Active 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

24. 2023-07-30
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

25. 2023-07-25
    price $117,900 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

26. 2023-06-23
    price $121,900 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

27. 2023-06-02
    listed $129,900 Active 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    If you lived in Hinsdale, you’d already be home! Nestled on the corner of Route 446 and Route 16, where convenience meets charm. This residence offers a prime location and an array of features. Upon arrival, you'll immediately notice the stunning curb appeal home. The exterior boasts recently refreshed siding and windows, ensuring style and energy efficiency. The heart of this home is its expansive and thoughtfully designed living spaces. Natural light dances through the windows, illuminating the space and enhancing the welcoming ambiance. The kitchen offers plenty of space to maneuver and even has a breakfast nook! The large living and dining area offers convenience when entertaining and has hardwood under the carpet. The primary bedroom is enormous, with a good-sized closet. One bedroom is on the first floor, and the other is upstairs. There's the exciting possibility of converting a room into a fourth bedroom or offering flexibility for a home office or guest room. Currently, the space is relatively small, with access to the crawlspace, but it has the potential to be another bedroom. As you step outside, prepare to be enchanted by the expansive yard surrounding the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,292 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,455 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,292
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$4,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hinsdale Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614490
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,001
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #3630
• State rank: #297 of 755 in NY

Livability — Weston Mills

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #12400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 95
• Population (ZIP): 2,095

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Current HPI: 321.4238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+19.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $112,900 Public Records
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) $112,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-08-31 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-08-25 Price Changed $112,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-08-02 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2023-07-30 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed $117,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-06-23 Price Changed $121,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-06-02 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,292 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.