3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,992 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,223/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$114
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$257
Net cashflow
$92/mo
Annual
$1,101/yr
Cap rate
7.05%
Cash-on-cash
2.71%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (15.6% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $122k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D, employment D.
El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in El Dorado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VQ8QMB087877PY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29