5033 County road 335 #112

New Castle, CO 81647

$199,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 363 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,638/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#87 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Garfield School District No. Re-2 (town): math 16% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #61 of 86 in CO (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Senor Elementary School (math 5% / reading 37%, grade F, #673 of 966 statewide, top 71%, 273 students, 34% FRL); Riverside School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #129 of 270 statewide, top 51%, 468 students, 37% FRL); Coal Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #155 of 381 statewide, top 42%, 527 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 0.9% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.