5033 County road 335 #112 · New Castle, CO 81647

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · Manufactured public records · 363 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $183k · 9% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seeking an affordable and comfortable home in New Castle? This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, built in 2007 and recently painted is the perfect solution. Enjoy the outdoor deck and a practical layout designed for everyday living. Located in the Apple Tree community, you'll find a friendly atmosphere and convenient access to I-70 and local amenities. This listing is for the mobile home only, with a lot lease. Embrace the ease of mobile home living without sacrificing comfort or location. Inquire today!

Key facts

• Outdoor deck
• Built 2007
• Listed 363 days

Tags

• OUTDOOR DECK
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-70

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($878/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 0.9% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#87 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Garfield School District No. Re-2 (town): math 16% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #61 of 86 in CO (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Senor Elementary School (math 5% / reading 37%, grade F, #673 of 966 statewide, top 71%, 273 students, 34% FRL); Riverside School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #129 of 270 statewide, top 51%, 468 students, 37% FRL); Coal Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #155 of 381 statewide, top 42%, 527 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,260 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,168
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5033 County road 335 #112	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	1mo	$180,000	$128	96
5033 County Road 335 #73	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	4mo	$180,000	$128	93
5033 335 COUNTY Rd #153	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+6%)	16mo	$190,000	$126	77
5033 County Road 335 #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	22mo	$155,000	$115	72
5033 335 County Rd #189	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-13%)	9mo	$165,000	$133	70
5033 Co Rd 335 #80	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+9%)	20mo	$195,000	$125	68
5033 335 County Rd #134	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	15mo	$195,000	$156	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,668
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,427
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81647

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $130	+0% $73	+5% $17	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $9	+0% $73	+5% $137	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $124	base $73	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   price $199,000
4. 2025-10-08
   status Active
5. 2025-08-15
   price $214,000
6. 2025-04-15
   price $219,000
7. 2025-03-31
   listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $1,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garfield School District No. Re-2
• NCES district ID: 0806240
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,207
• Composite: 23.78/100
• National rank: #7811
• State rank: #61 of 86 in CO

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #7758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,037
• Population (ZIP): 7,037

Population outlook (Garfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,756 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 64,952 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 64,937 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 62,413 · +1.1%
• By 2100: 55,730 · -9.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garfield

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 47.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -0.0pp · 2024: 2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.1 2020: D+2.3 2016: R+7.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: R+0.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.66%
• Current HPI: 565.0918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — AGMLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — AGMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $199,000 AGMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — AGMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $214,000 AGMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $219,000 AGMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $229,000 AGMLS

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · +167.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.