178 Overlook

MacDonnell Heights, NY 12603

$549,900D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1985 · MultiFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$896
• Net cashflow: $-771/mo
• Annual: $-9,249/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $153,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-385/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $550k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At $4,266/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.