178 Overlook · MacDonnell Heights, NY 12603

$549,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1985 2.67 ac lot Est $863k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own a well-maintained 2-family ranch-style duplex set on 2.63 scenic acres in desirable Town of LaGrange. Built in 1985 and thoughtfully updated, this property is ideal for both owner-occupants and investors alike. Each spacious unit offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, along with its own private one-car garage and in-unit washer and dryer for added convenience. The units have been consistently updated and are in excellent condition, making this a true move-in-ready property. Enjoy the privacy and space of a large lot while still being conveniently located near local amenities. Whether you are looking to live in one unit and rent the other, or expand your investment p

Key facts

• 2.63 scenic acres
• Move in ready
• 2.67 acre lot

Tags

• 2 FAMILY RANCH STYLE DUPLEX
• 2.63 SCENIC ACRES
• PRIVATE ONE CAR GARAGE
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 6 parking spaces; Private, off-street parking; Oversized parking; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Heated garage
• Security: Security system installed
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric; Septic tank; Cable available; Phone available; Private trash collection
• Home design: Duplex; Updated/remodeled condition; Actual condition listed
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and frame construction; Vinyl siding; Fiberglass insulation
• Exterior features: Dog run; Partial fencing; Other exterior features; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen(s)
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Double-pane windows with screens; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-385/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $414k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Overlook Primary School (402 students, 25% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,266/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $550k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $413,740 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $863,356
• List price: $549,900
• Delta: -36.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213-215 Overlook Rd	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+12%)	16mo	$550,000	$277	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-142,343
• Equity at exit: $81,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-203,805
• Equity at exit: $47,545

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 21.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$1,028 /mo · $12,337/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$896
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,242

Max offer price $413,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-459	-5% $-615	+0% $-771	+5% $-926	+10% $-1,082
Rent	-10% $-1,108	-5% $-939	+0% $-771	+5% $-602	+10% $-434
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-631	base $-771	+0.5pp $-913	+1.0pp $-1,058

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$4,266
Total (2 units)			$4,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Stonewall Cir #7 Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	1519	$3,500	$2.30	45d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $549,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $549,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $549,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $549,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $549,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $549,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   listed $549,900 Active 1154-char remark
8. 1989-05-08
   soldstatus $119,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,337 · $1,028/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,337 · $1,028/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$12,337
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,095
• − Management: −$4,095
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$18,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,532
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — MacDonnell Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+359.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $549,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $119,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,337 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.