Bristol Plan

St. John, IN 46373

$382,990F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 379 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,836/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax + insurance: −$699
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-659/mo
• Annual: $-7,905/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $117,459

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $383k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timothy Ball Elementary School (math 67% / reading 59%, grade B, #99 of 994 statewide, top 10%, 540 students, 31% FRL); Colonel John Wheeler Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #76 of 330 statewide, top 23%, 1,046 students, 24% FRL); Crown Point High School (math 51% / reading 80%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 2,948 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 331 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in St. John — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.