Bristol Plan · St. John, IN 46373

$382,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily · 379 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bristol is a featured ranch plan at The Gates of St. John in St. John, IN. With a variety of stone and brick exteriors to choose from, you are sure to find the right home. This single-story home provides the right combination of design and functionality. The Bristol ranch includes 1,748 square feet of living space with 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a flex room, and a two-car garage. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by an inviting foyer and the secondary bedroom and full bathroom. Going further down the foyer, you will find a flex room which is perfect as a home office or den. The end of the foyer reveals the open concept living area. The chef's kitchen is complete with modern stainless-steel appliances, walk-in pantry, and a center island that is great for meal prep or casual dining. The open concept kitchen, living, and dining rooms allow you to be right in the action while entertaining. The primary bedroom serves as a peaceful retreat, offering an en suite bathroom with dual sink vanity, a water closet, and a large walk-in closet. Finally, you'll find a centrally located laundry room and a covered patio off the dining room which is a perfect space to enjoy warm weather. Schedule a visit today to find your new home at The Gates of St. John. * Photos are for representational purposes only, finishes may vary per home.

Key facts

• Ranch plan
• Flex room
• Single-story home

Tags

• RANCH PLAN
• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $382,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,495.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $383k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-659 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in St. John — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crown Point Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #23 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timothy Ball Elementary School (math 67% / reading 59%, grade B, #99 of 994 statewide, top 10%, 540 students, 31% FRL); Colonel John Wheeler Middle School (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D+, #76 of 330 statewide, top 23%, 1,046 students, 24% FRL); Crown Point High School (math 51% / reading 80%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 2,948 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 331 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $283,576 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,495
• List price: $382,990
• Delta: -8.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10142 Azalea Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,802 (+3%)	1mo	$389,900	$216	70
7676 W 106th Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,958 (+12%)	1mo	$424,990	$217	66
7694 W 106th Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+13%)	1mo	$409,990	$208	66
10160 Privet Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (+6%)	1mo	$388,000	$209	66
7786 W 106th Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+13%)	3mo	$408,990	$208	65
7645 W 106th Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+13%)	1mo	$441,990	$224	63
8341 Larkspur Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+10%)	3mo	$440,000	$229	60
10132 Azalea Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (-8%)	3mo	$389,500	$242	59
10347 Blaine St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+13%)	3mo	$449,990	$228	58
8310 W 101st Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,650 (-6%)	3mo	$322,000	$195	58
10650 Morse Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+13%)	4mo	$397,990	$202	52
8341 W 107th Pl	0.53mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,940 (+11%)	2mo	$425,000	$219	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-109,892
• Equity at exit: $62,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-149,546
• Equity at exit: $36,270

Cash invested: $117,459 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.1 mo (32%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $419,900 ($218/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,292/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,670

Max offer price $324,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-514	+0% $-659	+5% $-804	+10% $-949
Rent	-10% $-883	-5% $-771	+0% $-659	+5% $-547	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-448	-0.5pp $-552	base $-659	+0.5pp $-767	+1.0pp $-878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,874
• Closing costs: $12,585
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8688 Larkspur Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1758	$3,000	$1.71	32d	1	0.62mi
10342 Adler Cv Saint John, IN	3.0	2.0	1944	$3,000	$1.54	0d	1	0.64mi
8726 Orchid Dr Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1756	$2,725	$1.55	93d	1	0.65mi
8754 Clover Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1756	$2,675	$1.52	93d	1	0.67mi
8769 W 108th Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,775	$1.58	93d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $382,990 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $382,990 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $382,990 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $382,990 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $382,990 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $382,990 Active 371 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $382,990 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $382,990 Active 368 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $382,990 Active 366 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $382,990 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $382,990 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $382,990 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $382,990 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $382,990 Active 360 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $382,990 Active 358 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $382,990 Active 357 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $382,990 Active 356 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $382,990 Active 355 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $382,990 Active 354 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $382,990 Active 353 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $382,990 Active 352 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $382,990 Active 351 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $382,990 Active 350 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $382,990 Active 349 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $382,990 Active 347 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $382,990 Active 346 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $382,990 Active 345 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $382,990 Active 344 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $382,990 Active 343 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $382,990 Active 342 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $382,990 Active 341 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $382,990 Active 340 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $382,990 Active 339 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $382,990 Active 338 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $382,990 Active 337 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $382,990 Active 336 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $382,990 Active 334 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $382,990 Active 332 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $382,990 Active 331 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $382,990 Active 328 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $382,990 Active 327 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $382,990 Active 326 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $382,990 Active 325 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $382,990 Active 323 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $382,990 Active 322 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $382,990 Active 319 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $382,990 Active 318 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $382,990 Active 317 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $382,990 Active 314 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $382,990 Active 313 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,498
• − Property taxes: −$6,292
• − Insurance: −$2,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,722
• − Management: −$2,722
• − Depreciation: −$12,203
• Taxable loss: −$15,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a clean and modern interior, well-maintained exterior, and a well-maintained landscape. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a pop of color and functionality to the kitchen, enhancing its resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity — A new vanity can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Resale Flooring in bathrooms — Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms can make the space more appealing and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Window treatments — Window treatments can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Lighting fixtures — Upgrading the lighting fixtures can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve the HVAC system's efficiency and lifespan, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Regular maintenance can keep the landscaping looking its best, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timothy Ball Elementary School B IN #99/994 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle Colonel John Wheeler Middle School D+ IN #76/330 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Crown Point High School B IN #29/369 Nat'l #2,744/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crown Point Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1802490
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,148
• Composite: 49.55/100
• National rank: #1990
• State rank: #23 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• County: Lake · 484,026 people
• City population: 18,509
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 18,509
• Household income: $123,203
• Rent vs Own: 2.0% rent · 98.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $382,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $380,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $378,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $376,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-11 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-19 Listed $374,990 Zillow