10696 N Credo Dr

Willow, AK 99688

$45,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Built 2002 · Other · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $649/mo
• Annual: $7,789/yr
• Cap rate: 23.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.82%
• DSCR: 3.75
• 1% rule: 2.68%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $185 of equity ($311 loan paydown + $-126 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.