10696 N Credo Dr · Willow, AK 99688

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Other public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2002

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

BUILDING ONLY!! Remodeled, easyish to move. Go under as few lines as possible and you will have a great home to live in.

Key facts

• Built 2002
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Detached (not attached); Built in 2002; Other type of foundation
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One total room count not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $185 of equity ($311 loan paydown + $-126 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.82%
• DSCR: 3.75
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $39,449
• Equity at exit: $12,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $92,888
• Equity at exit: $14,459

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $386

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $45,000 Active
17. 2025-07-16
    price $70,000
18. 2025-05-14
    listed $89,000 Active
19. 2024-08-14
    price $129,900
20. 2024-07-23
    price $132,000
21. 2024-07-11
    price $138,000
22. 2024-06-01
    listed $150,000 Active
23. 2023-11-27
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2023-11-13
    status Pending
25. 2023-10-09
    listed $45,800 Active
26. 2006-07-07
    listed $79,900
27. 2005-11-03
    listed $100,000
28. 2001-01-19
    listed $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $5,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Willow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #19315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow, AK
• City population: 2,542
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+718.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $45,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $70,000 AKMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $89,000 AKMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $129,900 AKMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $132,000 AKMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $138,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $150,000 AKMLS
• 2023-11-27 Sold (MLS) — AKMLS
• 2023-11-13 Pending — AKMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $45,800 AKMLS
• 2006-07-07 Listed $79,900 AKMLS
• 2005-11-03 Listed $100,000 AKMLS
• 2001-01-19 Listed $5,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.