4446 Rustic Dr Unit E

Beacon Square, FL 34652

$79,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$696
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-431/mo
• Annual: $-5,172/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $17k (78.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (78.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mittye P. Locke Elementary School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 491 students, 89% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 791 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Beacon Square — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 79% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.