64 Waterville Dr

Sound Beach, NY 11789

$360,400D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1935 · MultiFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,890
• Tax + insurance: −$663
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,149/yr
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $100,912

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Miller Place Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #116 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.