64 Waterville Dr · Sound Beach, NY 11789

$360,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1935 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers approximately 1,264 sq. ft. of living space on a 10,019 sq. ft. lot with a full basement. The property is currently vacant and requires renovation. Deferred maintenance is present throughout, including roof, interior finishes, kitchen and bath updates, and exterior components. Estimated repair scope has been identified, providing an opportunity for value-add improvement. Located in a residential neighborhood with convenient access to local amenities, shopping, transportation routes, and nearby recreational areas. Comparable renovated homes in the area support significantly higher value potential after improvements. The property is being offered in as-is condition.

Key facts

• Close to main roads
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1935

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• CLOSE TO MAIN ROADS
• FULL/UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Miller Place Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #116 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $317,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-41,593
• Equity at exit: $53,737

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-14,321
• Equity at exit: $31,161

Cash invested: $100,912 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11789

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,890
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,158/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,232

Max offer price $360,400

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,100
• Closing costs: $10,812
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $360,400 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers approximately 1,264 sq. ft. of living space on a 10,019 sq. ft. lot with a full basement. The property is currently vacant and requires renovation. Deferred maintenance is present throughout, including roof, interior finishes, kitchen and bath updates, and exterior components. Estimated repair scope has been identified, providing an opportunity for value-add improvement. Located in a residential neighborhood with convenient access to local amenities, shopping, transportation routes, and nearby recreational areas. Comparable renovated homes in the area support significantly higher value potential after improvements. The property is being offered in as-is condition.

2. 2026-03-02
   price $454,500 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers approximately 1,264 sq. ft. of living space on a 10,019 sq. ft. lot with a full basement. The property is currently vacant and requires renovation. Deferred maintenance is present throughout, including roof, interior finishes, kitchen and bath updates, and exterior components. Estimated repair scope has been identified, providing an opportunity for value-add improvement. Located in a residential neighborhood with convenient access to local amenities, shopping, transportation routes, and nearby recreational areas. Comparable renovated homes in the area support significantly higher value potential after improvements. The property is being offered in as-is condition.

3. 2026-01-27
   price $478,400 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers approximately 1,264 sq. ft. of living space on a 10,019 sq. ft. lot with a full basement. The property is currently vacant and requires renovation. Deferred maintenance is present throughout, including roof, interior finishes, kitchen and bath updates, and exterior components. Estimated repair scope has been identified, providing an opportunity for value-add improvement. Located in a residential neighborhood with convenient access to local amenities, shopping, transportation routes, and nearby recreational areas. Comparable renovated homes in the area support significantly higher value potential after improvements. The property is being offered in as-is condition.

4. 2025-12-22
   listed $503,500 Active 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch-style home offers approximately 1,264 sq. ft. of living space on a 10,019 sq. ft. lot with a full basement. The property is currently vacant and requires renovation. Deferred maintenance is present throughout, including roof, interior finishes, kitchen and bath updates, and exterior components. Estimated repair scope has been identified, providing an opportunity for value-add improvement. Located in a residential neighborhood with convenient access to local amenities, shopping, transportation routes, and nearby recreational areas. Comparable renovated homes in the area support significantly higher value potential after improvements. The property is being offered in as-is condition.

5. 2006-07-13
   soldstatus $350,000
6. 2004-08-24
   soldstatus $268,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,158 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,158 · $513/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,188
• − Property taxes: −$6,158
• − Insurance: −$1,802
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,422
• − Management: −$3,422
• − Depreciation: −$10,484
• Taxable loss: −$2,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miller Place Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3619410
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $99,693
• Composite: 62.5/100
• National rank: #685
• State rank: #116 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sound Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #7991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sound Beach, NY
• City population: 7,447
• Population (ZIP): 7,447

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.99%
• Current HPI: 366.6474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+34.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $360,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $454,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $478,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $503,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $268,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,158 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.