1848 Nuthatch Rdg

New Braunfels, TX 78130

$230,999D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,211
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-97/mo
• Annual: $-1,169/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $64,680

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Klein Road El (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 697 students, 46% FRL); New Braunfels Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,301 students, 44% FRL); New Braunfels H S (math 53% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.