1848 Nuthatch Rdg · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$230,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Townhouse · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Spec home (Ramsey plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1667

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Ramsey plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $231k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Klein Road El (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 697 students, 46% FRL); New Braunfels Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,301 students, 44% FRL); New Braunfels H S (math 53% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,747 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.81%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-49,166
• Equity at exit: $34,443

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-72,173
• Equity at exit: $19,973

Cash invested: $64,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,211
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$289 /mo · $3,465/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $216,908

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-18	+0% $-97	+5% $-177	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-172	+0% $-97	+5% $-22	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-39	base $-97	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,750
• Closing costs: $6,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	45d	1	0.05mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	6d	1	0.09mi
3943 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,695	$1.10	0d	1	0.18mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	12d	1	0.19mi
104 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2237	$1,995	$0.89	0d	1	0.20mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	3d	1	0.21mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	6d	1	0.26mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	45d	1	0.27mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	45d	1	0.31mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	0d	1	0.32mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	5d	1	0.32mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	0.33mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	6d	1	0.37mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	45d	1	0.37mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	45d	1	0.37mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	0d	1	0.38mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	3d	1	0.38mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	0.39mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	25d	1	0.41mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	6d	1	0.44mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	45d	1	0.44mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	16d	1	0.47mi
2595 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,395	$1.01	0d	1	0.50mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	18d	1	0.52mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	6d	1	0.54mi
2575 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,499	$1.09	45d	1	0.54mi
2562 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	6d	1	0.54mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.58mi
646 Ridge Lawn Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$1,950	$1.04	25d	1	0.63mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	45d	1	0.67mi
2842 Ridge Berry Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,200	$1.39	0d	1	0.70mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	19d	1	0.72mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	16d	1	0.73mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	45d	1	0.77mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.80mi
1320 Atticus Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1702	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.81mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$2,095	$1.37	0d	129	0.82mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	45d	1	0.82mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.83mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	45d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 414-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $230,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,940
• − Property taxes: −$3,465
• − Insurance: −$1,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$6,720
• Taxable loss: −$5,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,237
• After-tax cash flow: $68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story townhouse is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B