100 Autumn View Dr

Shoal Creek, AL 35147

$379,899D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,195 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,315/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-466/mo
• Annual: $-5,595/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (39.1% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#346 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chelsea Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 68%, grade C+, #76 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 867 students, 31% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $380k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Shoal Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.