100 Autumn View Dr · Shoal Creek, AL 35147

$379,899

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,195 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2002 1.03 ac lot $173/sqft · at area comps Est $429k · 11% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful home nestled on a private, wooded 1+ acre lot in the peaceful Bear Creek Ridge neighborhood. Offering space, charm, and serenity, you won't want to miss this one. Enjoy your morning coffee on the back porch surrounded by nature then step inside to find soaring ceilings in the foyer and a spacious living room. With a cozy wood-burning fireplace, the living room becomes the heart of the home. The main level includes the kitchen, eating area, a large master bedroom with walk-in closet and a double vanity bathroom, large dinning room, as well as two additional guest bedrooms, and a full bathroom; new carpets! Both the dining room and master bedroom have trey ceilings a

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance available; Quarterly fire fee of $35
• HOA & community: Association fee of $300 per year (includes management fee)

Exterior

• Parking: Side garage entry; Driveway parking; Lower level access to garage; Two total garage spaces (2 in basement level)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Underground utilities; Electric water heater; Internet service available; Energy-efficient features include ceiling fans and double-paned windows
• Home design: 4-side brick construction; Basement foundation (daylight partial basement, all unfinished); Existing home; Tri-level/split flags show No (layout includes main level with basement daylight area)
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Basement foundation (daylight, partial, unfinished)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered patio; Open deck(s); Heavily treed acreage (approximately 1.03 acres); Private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher; Eating area and pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level and one bedroom in the basement
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Garden tub and jetted tub; Separate shower and tub/shower combo; Walk-in closets in bedroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: 9 ft. and taller ceilings with cathedral/vaulted and trey ceiling details; Crown molding and smooth ceilings; Multiple staircases; Tile fireplace surround in the living room; Some window treatments to remain
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Shoal Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#346 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chelsea Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 68%, grade C+, #76 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 867 students, 31% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 305 statewide, top 9%, 1,400 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $248k; list at $380k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,525 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,913
• List price: $379,899
• Delta: -11.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Autumn View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+5%)	13mo	$439,000	$191	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-28,369
• Equity at exit: $123,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $899
• Equity at exit: $159,900

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35147

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,437/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,905

Max offer price $297,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-251	-5% $-359	+0% $-466	+5% $-574	+10% $-681
Rent	-10% $-649	-5% $-558	+0% $-466	+5% $-375	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-370	base $-466	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,899 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,899 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,899 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,899 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,899 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,899 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $379,899 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $379,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $385,000 Active 855-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    historical $385,000 855-char remark
18. 2025-08-14
    price $410,000
19. 2025-07-29
    price $415,000
20. 2005-05-24
    soldstatus $247,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,437
• − Insurance: −$1,899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$12,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,031
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Shoal Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #20545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,971

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Current HPI: 200.0103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+53.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $379,899 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $379,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $385,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $385,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $410,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $415,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2005-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $247,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,437 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.