472 Hogan Hollow Rd

Hollins, VA 24175

$75,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $559/mo
• Annual: $6,706/yr
• Cap rate: 15.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.93%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#126 in VA, #4,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Botetourt County Public School District (rural): math 76% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #6 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Greenfield Elementary (math 73% / reading 77%, grade A, #211 of 1,108 statewide, top 20%, 426 students, 37% FRL); Read Mountain Middle (math 75% / reading 82%, grade A+, #32 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 657 students, 35% FRL); Lord Botetourt High (math 83% / reading 92%, grade A, #15 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 980 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Botetourt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Botetourt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.9% in Hollins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.