472 Hogan Hollow Rd · Hollins, VA 24175

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1930 2.97 ac lot $48/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COUNTRY SETTING. ROOM FOR CHICKENS AND HORSE.

Key facts

• 2.97 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 24 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.9% in Hollins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#126 in VA, #4,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Botetourt County Public School District (rural): math 76% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #6 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Botetourt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Botetourt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.93%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -75.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $23,437
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $66,233
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24175

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $580	+0% $559	+5% $538	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $507	+0% $559	+5% $611	+10% $663
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $578	base $559	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $75,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $75,000 230-char remark
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $80,000 Active 230-char remark
6. 2018-04-25
   soldstatus $27,000 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   COUNTRY SETTING. ROOM FOR CHICKENS AND HORSE.

7. 2018-03-11
   listed $29,900 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   COUNTRY SETTING. ROOM FOR CHICKENS AND HORSE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $5,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Botetourt County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100420
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,125
• Composite: 68.07/100
• National rank: #355
• State rank: #6 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollins

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #4055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,212
• Population (ZIP): 8,054

Population outlook (Botetourt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,273 people
• By 2030: 34,457 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 34,051 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 30,720 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 26,395 · -23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Botetourt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.50%
• Current HPI: 151.591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+150.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $75,000 MLSRV
• 2018-04-25 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MLSRV
• 2018-03-11 Listed $29,900 MLSRV

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.