35 Pembrook Dr

Stony Brook, NY 11790

$750,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,171
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,336/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $686k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $557k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $557k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in NY, #515 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: William Sidney Mount Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 511 students, 17% FRL); Robert Cushman Murphy Junior High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 667 students, 18% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Stony Brook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($171k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.