35 Pembrook Dr · Stony Brook, NY 11790

$750,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1965 0.46 ac lot $404/sqft · 5% below area Est $790k · 5% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to make this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home your own! Featuring a primary bedroom with private bath, updated bathroom, spacious living room, dining room, and eat-in kitchen. The family room with fireplace offers a warm and inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. Additional features include a two-car garage and a functional layout with plenty of potential. With a little updating and personal touch, this home can truly shine.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area based on plans
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; High ceilings; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on the main level; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $686k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $557k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $557k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Stony Brook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in NY, #515 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: William Sidney Mount Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 511 students, 17% FRL); Robert Cushman Murphy Junior High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 667 students, 18% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($171k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $557,448 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $790,073
• List price: $750,000
• Delta: -5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Ballad Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,907 (+3%)	4mo	$635,000	$333	78
363 Oxhead Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+2%)	0mo	$660,000	$347	77
3 Bowen Pl	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+3%)	5mo	$721,500	$378	75
16 Barnwell Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-3%)	8mo	$690,000	$383	73
19 Barnwell Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,980 (+7%)	4mo	$735,000	$371	67
10 Pickwick Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (-4%)	4mo	$780,000	$440	66
11 Pembrook Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+13%)	3mo	$900,000	$429	64
37 Malvern Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,887 (+2%)	5mo	$810,000	$429	57
30 Oak Run	0.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (-14%)	1mo	$810,000	$510	52
404 Oxhead Rd	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (+8%)	6mo	$785,000	$393	50
6 Freshman Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+13%)	3mo	$680,000	$324	46
28 Hargrove Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-13%)	4mo	$630,000	$389	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-144,719
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-156,354
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11790

• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,235/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,171
• Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,032

Max offer price $686,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-149	+0% $-361	+5% $-574	+10% $-786
Rent	-10% $-802	-5% $-582	+0% $-361	+5% $-141	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-171	base $-361	+0.5pp $-556	+1.0pp $-753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	3.0	4.0	2274	$5,000	$2.20	0d	1	1.00mi
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	26d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $750,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $750,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $750,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $750,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $750,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $750,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $750,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $770,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $770,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $770,000 Active 442-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,235 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,455 · $788/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,220/yr (+$268/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$6,235
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,352
• − Management: −$5,352
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$17,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stony Brook

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #515

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Brook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,074
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,074
• Household income: $171,133
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Chinese 13% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -662.88%
• Current HPI: 284.601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $770,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,235 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.