138 Brannon Montgomery Rd

Tazewell, GA 31058

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-224/mo
• Annual: $-2,687/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (39.3% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion County (rural): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #121 of 174 in GA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L. K. Moss Elementary School (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #728 of 1,228 statewide, top 60%, 600 students, 82% FRL); Marion County Middle/High School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #180 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 679 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.