138 Brannon Montgomery Rd · Tazewell, GA 31058

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2015 10 ac lot $127/sqft · 36% below area Est $313k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous private home on 10 acres in the tranquility of the country yet only 35 minutes to Columbus and less than 2 hours to Atlanta. Follow the very long, private driveway along the fenced property line to the home that is ~1000ft from the rear property line. The home is an open floor plan split bedroom design with large open combo living room /dining room and kitchen with center island and brand new stainless appliances. Large Laundry Room /mud room to exterior deck and yard. Large master bedroom with ensuite bathroom with soaking tub, vanity and huge walk in closet, 2 additional guest bedrooms with guest bathrooms. Front of home has huge covered porch for relaxing and smelling the establ

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced property line
• 10 acres

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• LONG PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• FENCED PROPERTY LINE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE OPEN COMBO LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 10-acre property with level, private land; partially wooded and grassed
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking (kitchen level access)
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One level; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Built in 2015; Vinyl siding; Tar and gravel roof; Block and pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Dining room and living room combo; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area with mud room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion County (rural): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #121 of 174 in GA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L. K. Moss Elementary School (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #728 of 1,228 statewide, top 60%, 600 students, 82% FRL); Marion County Middle/High School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #180 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 679 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,351 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,341
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -36.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,418
• Equity at exit: $70,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,169
• Equity at exit: $95,653

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31058

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $160,348

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-167	+0% $-224	+5% $-280	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-272	+0% $-224	+5% $-176	+10% $-128
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-173	base $-224	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $199,900 New 941-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,227/yr (+$102/mo · 200.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County
• NCES district ID: 1303540
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,313
• Composite: 21.56/100
• National rank: #8308
• State rank: #121 of 174 in GA

Livability — Tazewell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,851

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,483 people
• By 2030: 8,286 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 7,674 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 6,959 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 5,306 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 3,726 · -56.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.6% · R 64.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+22.2 2012: R+10.1 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Current HPI: 239.7694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $612 · +169.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.