212 Town Branch Rd

Manchester, KY 40962

$170,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,384 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,622/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clay County (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #130 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Elementary School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 388 students, 71% FRL); Clay County Middle School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 407 students, 74% FRL); Clay County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 717 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP.
• Clay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?