407 Mae Cato Dr

Midway, FL 32343

$283,250D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,485
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,112/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $79,310

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gadsden (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #70 of 73 in FL (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Gadsden County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gadsden County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.