407 Mae Cato Dr · Midway, FL 32343

$283,250

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2022 0.65 ac lot $141/sqft · 14% below area Est $328k · 14% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

APPT ONLY - Please NOTE Short Sale Price 283250 Full price and quick close $335K); Short sale negotiations with current lender - Tina Bell, Esq/ Prestige Settlement and Title-Contact Valerie Davis ; MUST CLOSE if not paying full price; LIKE NEW; 4 bed 2 bath 2 car garage, Primary bedroom has large walk in closet; unique bathtub/ shower combo; all granite in kitchen and baths; all ss appliances; solar system in place; BUYER(S) must have a completely underwritten approval letter and or POF and be flexible with closing date to insure proper short sale negotiations THANK YOU FOR SHOWING

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gadsden (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #70 of 73 in FL (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Gadsden County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gadsden County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,116
• List price: $283,250
• Delta: -13.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
359 Mae Cato Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,112 (+5%)	2mo	$290,000	$137	88
164 James Hinson Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,025 (+1%)	4mo	$337,000	$166	76
52 Monroe Creek Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,854 (-8%)	14mo	$292,000	$157	57
305 Delores Madison Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-11%)	1mo	$329,800	$184	56
50 Frank Run	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,730 (-14%)	4mo	$325,000	$188	50
62 Frank Run	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,730 (-14%)	4mo	$325,000	$188	49
1217 Rustling Pines Blvd	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,986 (-1%)	22mo	$305,000	$154	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-47,042
• Equity at exit: $69,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,405
• Equity at exit: $74,710

Cash invested: $79,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32343

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,485
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,290/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,389

Max offer price $207,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-346	+0% $-426	+5% $-506	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-499	+0% $-426	+5% $-353	+10% $-280
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-354	base $-426	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,812
• Closing costs: $8,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 N Charles Willis Dr Midway, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,850	$1.29	15d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-04
   price $283,250 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   APPT ONLY - Please NOTE Short Sale Price 283250 Full price and quick close $335K); Short sale negotiations with current lender - Tina Bell, Esq/ Prestige Settlement and Title-Contact Valerie Davis ; MUST CLOSE if not paying full price; LIKE NEW; 4 bed 2 bath 2 car garage, Primary bedroom has large walk in closet; unique bathtub/ shower combo; all granite in kitchen and baths; all ss appliances; solar system in place; BUYER(S) must have a completely underwritten approval letter and or POF and be flexible with closing date to insure proper short sale negotiations THANK YOU FOR SHOWING

2. 2025-12-03
   listed $289,000 Active 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   APPT ONLY - Please NOTE Short Sale Price 283250 Full price and quick close $335K); Short sale negotiations with current lender - Tina Bell, Esq/ Prestige Settlement and Title-Contact Valerie Davis ; MUST CLOSE if not paying full price; LIKE NEW; 4 bed 2 bath 2 car garage, Primary bedroom has large walk in closet; unique bathtub/ shower combo; all granite in kitchen and baths; all ss appliances; solar system in place; BUYER(S) must have a completely underwritten approval letter and or POF and be flexible with closing date to insure proper short sale negotiations THANK YOU FOR SHOWING

3. 2025-04-15
   historical
4. 2025-01-17
   listed $335,700 Active
5. 2023-03-01
   soldstatus $298,000
6. 2023-02-27
   soldstatus $298,000 Closed
7. 2023-02-06
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2022-11-13
   listed $288,000 Active
9. 2013-11-12
   soldstatus $46,600
10. 2010-06-01
    soldstatus $830,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,866
• − Property taxes: −$3,290
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$8,240
• Taxable loss: −$10,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden
• NCES district ID: 1200600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,470
• Composite: 25.75/100
• National rank: #7373
• State rank: #70 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,583

Population outlook (Gadsden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,956 people
• By 2030: 40,878 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,218 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,502 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 21,828 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 14,480 · -66.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gadsden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 65.0% · R 34.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+36.6 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+40.6 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 167.7351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-65.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $283,250 CATRS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $289,000 CATRS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $335,700 CATRS
• 2023-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $298,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-27 Sold (MLS) $298,000 CATRS
• 2023-02-06 Contingent — CATRS
• 2022-11-13 Listed $288,000 CATRS
• 2013-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $46,600 Public Records
• 2010-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $830,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,290 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.