5324 Gray Fox Ct

Royal Palm Estates, FL 33415

$359,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-315/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-315/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#290 in FL, #4,897 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $359k implies a 434% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,767/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 2254% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.