190 Forest Lake Dr

Folkston, GA 31537

$175,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-144/mo
• Annual: $-1,724/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#191 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Charlton County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #94 of 174 in GA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Folkston Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #380 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 469 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Charlton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Folkston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.