190 Forest Lake Dr · Folkston, GA 31537

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1992 0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

Key facts

• Southern front porch
• Back porch
• 0.99 acre lot

Tags

• SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Folkston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#191 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Charlton County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #94 of 174 in GA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Folkston Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #380 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 469 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Charlton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,901 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $36,153
• Equity at exit: $104,434

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $115,098
• Equity at exit: $184,749

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31537

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $154,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-83	+0% $-144	+5% $-204	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-197	+0% $-144	+5% $-90	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-99	base $-144	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-02-27
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

2. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

3. 2026-02-06
   status Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

4. 2026-02-06
   status Back On Market

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

5. 2026-01-22
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

6. 2026-01-22
   status Pending 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

7. 2025-10-08
   listed $175,000 Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY! THIS SPACIOUS 4 BED, 2 BATH HOME WITH DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE AND 0.99 ACRES, IS BEING SOLD AS IS. THERE IS A SOUTHERN FRONT PORCH WITH ROOM FOR ROCKING CHAIRS AND A SWING. THERE IS A BACK PORCH PERFECT FOR GRILLING. THE FLOOR PLAN IS SPLIT WITH THE MASTER ON ONE SIDE OF THE KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA AND THE THREE OTHER BEDROOMS ON THE OTHER SIDE. COME SEE THIS PROPERTY AND MAKE AN OFFER!

8. 2025-09-26
   listed $175,000 New
9. 2021-09-20
   soldstatus $172,000
10. 2021-08-11
    soldstatus $172,000 Sold 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Beautiful home recently renovated, approx 1 acre lot, new roof, new floors, freshly painted, updated bathrooms, southern style back porch.

11. 2021-08-11
    soldstatus $172,000

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Beautiful home recently renovated, approx 1 acre lot, new roof, new floors, freshly painted, updated bathrooms, southern style back porch.

12. 2021-06-30
    status Under Contract 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Beautiful home recently renovated, approx 1 acre lot, new roof, new floors, freshly painted, updated bathrooms, southern style back porch.

13. 2021-06-21
    listed $179,900 New 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Beautiful home recently renovated, approx 1 acre lot, new roof, new floors, freshly painted, updated bathrooms, southern style back porch.

14. 2021-06-21
    listed $179,900

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Beautiful home recently renovated, approx 1 acre lot, new roof, new floors, freshly painted, updated bathrooms, southern style back porch.

15. 2021-01-29
    soldstatus $43,000
16. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlton County
• NCES district ID: 1300990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,024
• Composite: 25.75/100
• National rank: #7374
• State rank: #94 of 174 in GA

Livability — Folkston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #11801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,343

Population outlook (Charlton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,147 people
• By 2030: 13,116 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 13,025 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 12,954 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 12,941 · -1.6%
• By 2100: 11,206 · -14.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.2) · D 21.8% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -56.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.2 2020: R+50.7 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 318.9275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — GIAR
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — GIAR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $175,000 GIAR
• 2025-09-26 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-11 Sold (MLS) $172,000 GIAR
• 2021-08-11 Sold (MLS) $172,000 GAMLS
• 2021-06-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-06-21 Listed $179,900 GIAR
• 2021-06-21 Listed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2021-01-29 Sold (MLS) $43,000 GAMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $130 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.