145 Gambel Trl

San Antonio, TX 78264

$229,200D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,202
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,260/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $64,176

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W M Pearce Pri (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 466 students, 90% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.