145 Gambel Trl · San Antonio, TX 78264

$229,200

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 0.63 ac lot $171/sqft · 6% below area Est $243k · 6% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * This is a To Be Built Home * * * The photos are stock photos. Builder to contribute to buyers concessions w/ preferred lender. This thoughtfully planned community offers a variety of new construction homes situated on oversized, heavily treed lots - giving you the room to spread out, relax, and truly make it yours. Choose from multiple floorplans designed to fit your lifestyle, with pricing starting from the low $200's. Customize your dream home by selecting your preferred floorplan, colors, and upgrades to create a space that's uniquely yours. Be among the first to tour available homesites, explore floorpans, lots, lender information and lock in pre-grand opening pricing. This is

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is for sale; possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Down payment resources not indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $360 annually; Association transfer fee $125; Subdivision: OUT/ATASCOSA CO.

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Electric water heater; Energy Star certified; Drought-tolerant landscaping and low-flow toilet
• Home design: New construction by Clayton; Composition roof
• Construction: New build (approximate age: 0); Siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Double pane windows; Mature trees; Level lot; County view; Street paved with streetlights and nearby fire hydrant; Asphalt / city street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen; Stove/Range; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (15 x 12); Bedroom 2 (10 x 9); Bedroom 3 (9 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower-only (9 x 12)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open island kitchen with walk-in pantry; Separate dining room; One living area; Utility room inside; Laundry room on main/lower level with washer and dryer connections; Ground level / no steps; All bedrooms located downstairs; Walk-in closets; Telephone and cable/ high-speed internet available; All window coverings remain; Self-cleaning oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W M Pearce Pri (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 466 students, 90% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,907 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,444
• List price: $229,200
• Delta: -5.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $22,021
• Equity at exit: $115,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $88,884
• Equity at exit: $188,281

Cash invested: $64,176 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,438/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $189,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-192	+0% $-272	+5% $-351	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-406	-5% $-339	+0% $-272	+5% $-205	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-213	base $-272	+0.5pp $-331	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,300
• Closing costs: $6,876
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,200 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,200 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,200 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,200 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,200 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,200 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,200 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,200 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   listed $229,200 New 709-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,839
• − Property taxes: −$3,438
• − Insurance: −$1,146
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,668
• Taxable loss: −$7,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-05-04 Listed $229,200 LERA