10076 Kathy Jo Rd

Glen St. Mary, FL 32040

$269,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $373/mo
• Annual: $4,471/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $253k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 544 students, 62% FRL); Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $269k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Glen St. Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.