10076 Kathy Jo Rd · Glen St. Mary, FL 32040

$269,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1997 0.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath retreat nestled on a generous piece of land, offering the perfect blend of privacy, space, and style. Step inside to an open and airy floor plan featuring fresh neutral tones, durable luxury vinyl plank flooring, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating the ideal space for entertaining or everyday living. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with ample cabinetry, modern countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a functional layout that makes cooking a breeze. A cozy dining area overlooks the backyard and opens to the deck, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious living area
• Modern countertops

Tags

• GENEROUS PIECE OF LAND
• OPEN AND AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• MODERN COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential use
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.87 acres; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Utilities include cable availability, electricity connected, sewer connected, and water available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Glen St. Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 544 students, 62% FRL); Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $269k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-19,956
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $12,784
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32040

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,370/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $289,000
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2017-02-13
    soldstatus $83,700
18. 2013-11-26
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 62.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,370
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,442
• − Management: −$2,442
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $32
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8
• After-tax cash flow: $4,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker
• NCES district ID: 1200060
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,301
• Composite: 43.67/100
• National rank: #2958
• State rank: #28 of 73 in FL

Livability — Glen St. Mary

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,754

Population outlook (Baker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,607 people
• By 2030: 27,452 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 26,637 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 25,103 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 19,576 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 11,664 · -57.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.2% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -57.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+58.6 2008: R+57.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.72%
• Current HPI: 216.151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2308.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $289,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $299,000 realMLS
• 2017-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $83,700 Public Records
• 2013-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,370 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.