3268 Lakeshore Dr

Fort Pierce, FL 34949

$475,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$487
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-630/mo
• Annual: $-7,561/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (24.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $359k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $475k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,593/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?