3268 Lakeshore Dr · Fort Pierce, FL 34949

$475,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2003 $487/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely patio home in the walled/gated community of Sands on River. It & acirc; & euro; & trade; s within walking distance to a gated access to the beautiful north Hutchinson Island beaches. Home has a two-car garage, walled and screened patio with in-ground pool and space to entertain Al-fresco. Roof was replaced in 2024. Interior of the home was updated with wood-look laminate floors throughout home. Kitchen has upgraded soft-close wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances and quartz countertops. Open floor plan with dinette area off kitchen and separate dining and living room area. Custom board & amp; batten-look on walls in great room area. Guest bedrooms have bead board

Key facts

• Community pool
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY RESIDENCE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PRIVATE DEEDED BEACH ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,593/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $475k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,324 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-97,941
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-49,844
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34949

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,717/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$487
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,391

Max offer price $363,698

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-361	-5% $-496	+0% $-630	+5% $-765	+10% $-899
Rent	-10% $-914	-5% $-772	+0% $-630	+5% $-488	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-509	base $-630	+0.5pp $-753	+1.0pp $-878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 River Walk Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$3,000	$1.57	24d	1	0.07mi
3206 S Lakeview Cir #1105 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	22d	1	0.08mi
3150 North Highway A1A Apt 1101N Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$3,700	$2.06	24d	1	0.13mi
3150 N Highway A1A #902 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1867	$3,800	$2.04	24d	1	0.13mi
3120 N Highway A1A #1302 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1867	$6,000	$3.21	24d	1	0.15mi
3100 North Highway A1A Unit Pco5 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$4,000	$3.31	24d	1	0.16mi
2800 N Highway A1A Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$3,972	$2.89	24d	6	0.34mi
2700 N Highway A1A Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1470	$3,750	$2.55	15d	3	0.40mi
1002 Shorewinds Dr Apt B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.5	1088	$2,250	$2.07	24d	1	0.44mi
3702 N Highway A1A #1202 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	3.0	1991	$6,000	$3.01	24d	1	0.63mi
3870 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 906 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$3,500	$2.82	24d	1	0.91mi
3870 North Highway A1A Ph 6 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1395	$3,800	$2.72	24d	1	0.92mi
3870 N Highway A1A #604 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$5,000	$4.21	24d	1	0.92mi
3870 N Highway A1A #102 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$3,350	$2.82	24d	1	0.92mi
3870 N Highway A1A #301 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,600	$2.10	24d	1	0.92mi
3870 N Highway A1A #202 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$3,000	$2.53	24d	1	0.92mi
3870 N Highway A1A #304 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1187	$5,500	$4.63	24d	1	0.92mi
3880 N Highway A1A #403 Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1966	$3,800	$1.93	24d	1	0.93mi
3880 N Highway A1A #802 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1405	$4,500	$3.20	24d	1	0.93mi
3880 N Highway A1A #905 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	2.5	2151	$5,500	$2.56	24d	1	0.93mi
3880 N Highway A1A #603 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1966	$6,450	$3.28	24d	1	0.93mi
3929 Shoreside Dr Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	3.0	1984	$10,000	$5.04	24d	1	1.06mi
4100 N Highway A1A #325 Hutchinson Island, FL	3.0	3.5	1966	$3,000	$1.53	15d	1	1.15mi
4200 N Highway A1A #413 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,000	$2.85	24d	1	1.36mi
4200 N Highway A1A #215 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	15d	1	1.36mi
4200 N Highway A1A #1111 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,800	$3.61	24d	1	1.36mi
4225 N Highway A1A #20 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	1.5	1234	$3,000	$2.43	24d	1	1.39mi
4225 N Highway A1A #18 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	1.5	1234	$2,400	$1.94	24d	1	1.39mi
4225 N Highway A1A #17 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	1.5	1234	$2,500	$2.03	24d	1	1.39mi
4250 N Highway A1A #805 Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$3,300	$3.13	24d	1	1.40mi
4250 N Highway A1A #302 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	24d	1	1.40mi
4250 N Highway A1A #1005 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$5,300	$5.05	24d	1	1.40mi
4250 N Highway A1A #705 Hutchinson Island, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,750	$2.61	24d	1	1.40mi
4275 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 1546254P Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$4,838	$4.41	15d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $487 · $5,844/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $475,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $495,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $495,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $495,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $495,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $495,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $495,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $495,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $495,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 683-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $495,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,717 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,942 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,226/yr (+$102/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$2,717
• − Insurance: −$3,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,450
• − Management: −$3,450
• − HOA: −$5,844
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$15,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 78,556
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,470
• Household income: $94,949
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.89%
• Current HPI: 601.12
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.64%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+382.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $495,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-25 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2011-07-19 Listed $189,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $241,800 Public Records
• 2001-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,717 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.