460 Old Town Rd Unit 24H

East Setauket, NY 11776

$279,999F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$1,212
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-605/mo
• Annual: $-7,259/yr
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.26%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #123 of 590 in NY (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 142 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in East Setauket — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?