460 Old Town Rd Unit 24H · East Setauket, NY 11776

$279,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Condo · 76 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $304/sqft · 14% above area Est $246k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Stony Hollow, a fabulous gated community where comfort meets convenience in the heart of Port Jefferson Station. This bright and airy first-floor co-op offers a spacious two-bedroom layout with one full bathroom, perfect for easy, single-level living with ample closet space and close proximity to laundry center. Freshly painted and move-in ready, this home features brand-new carpeting, new air conditioning units, and a newly installed private fence enclosing your own peaceful patio retreat. The galley kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open concept layout that continues into the generously sized living room. Sliding glass doors lead directly to the private patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Natural light fills the living space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Residents enjoy a range of amenities, including a swimming pool, playground, BBQ area, on-site laundry facilities, a car-wash station, and community garden plots. Common charges cover it all, including property taxes, water, heat, gas for cooking, trash removal, cable/internet with the Optimum Silver package, snow removal, and exterior maintenance. Pet-friendly (with restrictions), this community offers easy access to major highways, shopping, the LIRR, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook Hospital, Mather & St. Charles Hospital, the Village of Port Jefferson, the Port Jeff Ferry, and local beaches. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location with exceptional amenities!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Galley kitchen
• Swimming pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE FENCE
• PATIO RETREAT
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in East Setauket — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #123 of 590 in NY (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 142 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,199 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.26%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,166
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: 13.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,339
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -94.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.02×
• Total profit: $-157,996
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11776

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,984

Max offer price $192,472

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Arrowhead Ln Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1289	$4,018	$3.12	1d	16	0.68mi
15 Donald St Port Jefferson Station, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	22d	1	0.87mi
42 Lamport Ave Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,400	$3.40	22d	1	1.36mi
588 Bicycle Path Port Jefferson Station, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1389	$4,311	$3.10	1d	5	1.44mi
39 Piedmont Dr Port Jefferson Station, NY	2.0	1.0	809	$3,174	$3.92	1d	22	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgasinternetcablesnow removalexterior maint.poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $279,999 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,999 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,999 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,999 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,999 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,999 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-03-25
    listed $279,999 Active 1603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1603 chars)

    Welcome to Stony Hollow, a fabulous gated community where comfort meets convenience in the heart of Port Jefferson Station. This bright and airy first-floor co-op offers a spacious two-bedroom layout with one full bathroom, perfect for easy, single-level living with ample closet space and close proximity to laundry center. Freshly painted and move-in ready, this home features brand-new carpeting, new air conditioning units, and a newly installed private fence enclosing your own peaceful patio retreat. The galley kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open concept layout that continues into the generously sized living room. Sliding glass doors lead directly to the private patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Natural light fills the living space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Residents enjoy a range of amenities, including a swimming pool, playground, BBQ area, on-site laundry facilities, a car-wash station, and community garden plots. Common charges cover it all, including property taxes, water, heat, gas for cooking, trash removal, cable/internet with the Optimum Silver package, snow removal, and exterior maintenance. Pet-friendly (with restrictions), this community offers easy access to major highways, shopping, the LIRR, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook Hospital, Mather & St. Charles Hospital, the Village of Port Jefferson, the Port Jeff Ferry, and local beaches. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a prime location with exceptional amenities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − HOA: −$14,544
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$11,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,769
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhouse in Stony Hollow offers a bright and airy first-floor layout with fresh updates and a peaceful patio retreat. It is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3615780
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $84,654
• Composite: 61.8/100
• National rank: #733
• State rank: #123 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Setauket

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Setauket, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,808
• Household income: $120,573
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 648.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -656.56%
• Current HPI: 343.598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $279,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid