21315 W Ocupado Dr

Wittmann, AZ 85361

$397,500D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,085
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-604/mo
• Annual: $-7,249/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $111,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-604 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.