21315 W Ocupado Dr · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$397,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2021 1.02 ac lot $250/sqft · at area comps Est $400k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this perfectly positioned home on over an acre of land with mountain views! The inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,465 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. A modern aesthetic shines through with plank tile flooring and an open-concept layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen is beautifully appointed with sleek granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, a convenient breakfast bar and a welcoming dining area. The split-plan primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bath featuring a granite-topped vanity, custom-tiled shower and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy peaceful outdoor living on the relaxing covered patio with fenced backyard, complemented by a charming wrought-iron fenced courtyard in front of the home. With easy access to Grand Ave./Hwy 60, no HOA and all appliances included, this move-in-ready property offers comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-604 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.51%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,179
• List price: $397,500
• Delta: -0.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21412 W Mellow St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-1%)	1mo	$432,300	$274	73
21333 W Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-10%)	1mo	$399,000	$278	70
21309 W Sleepy Ranch Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-10%)	5mo	$399,900	$278	68
32018 N Ash St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,469 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$245	62
31824 N Poplar St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-6%)	1mo	$340,000	$227	58
32210 S Center St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-6%)	6mo	$360,000	$241	49
21605 W Laura St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+7%)	5mo	$360,000	$212	48
32007 N Bush St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-10%)	4mo	$340,000	$237	47
21721 W Laura St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-12%)	3mo	$355,000	$253	42
21770 W Harding Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-15%)	4mo	$252,001	$187	41
32102 N Walnut St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-15%)	3mo	$340,000	$252	40
32230 N Center St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-14%)	4mo	$357,900	$264	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $177,822
• Equity at exit: $358,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $553,535
• Equity at exit: $772,255

Cash invested: $111,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,085
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,015

Max offer price $290,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-379	-5% $-492	+0% $-604	+5% $-717	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-782	-5% $-693	+0% $-604	+5% $-515	+10% $-426
Rate	-1.0pp $-404	-0.5pp $-503	base $-604	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-812

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,375
• Closing costs: $11,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21533 W Laura St Wittmann, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,250	$1.43	0d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $397,500 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $397,500 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $397,500 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $397,500 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $397,500 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,500 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $397,500 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Don't miss this perfectly positioned home on over an acre of land with mountain views! The inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,465 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. A modern aesthetic shines through with plank tile flooring and an open-concept layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen is beautifully appointed with sleek granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, a convenient breakfast bar and a welcoming dining area. The split-plan primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bath featuring a granite-topped vanity, custom-tiled shower and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy peaceful outdoor living on the relaxing covered patio with fenced backyard, complemented by a charming wrought-iron fenced courtyard in front of the home. With easy access to Grand Ave./Hwy 60, no HOA and all appliances included, this move-in-ready property offers comfort and convenience.

17. 2026-03-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Don't miss this perfectly positioned home on over an acre of land with mountain views! The inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,465 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. A modern aesthetic shines through with plank tile flooring and an open-concept layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen is beautifully appointed with sleek granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, a convenient breakfast bar and a welcoming dining area. The split-plan primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bath featuring a granite-topped vanity, custom-tiled shower and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy peaceful outdoor living on the relaxing covered patio with fenced backyard, complemented by a charming wrought-iron fenced courtyard in front of the home. With easy access to Grand Ave./Hwy 60, no HOA and all appliances included, this move-in-ready property offers comfort and convenience.

18. 2026-01-23
    listed $399,900 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Don't miss this perfectly positioned home on over an acre of land with mountain views! The inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,465 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. A modern aesthetic shines through with plank tile flooring and an open-concept layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen is beautifully appointed with sleek granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, a convenient breakfast bar and a welcoming dining area. The split-plan primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bath featuring a granite-topped vanity, custom-tiled shower and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy peaceful outdoor living on the relaxing covered patio with fenced backyard, complemented by a charming wrought-iron fenced courtyard in front of the home. With easy access to Grand Ave./Hwy 60, no HOA and all appliances included, this move-in-ready property offers comfort and convenience.

19. 2026-01-15
    historical $399,900 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Don't miss this perfectly positioned home on over an acre of land with mountain views! The inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,465 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. A modern aesthetic shines through with plank tile flooring and an open-concept layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen is beautifully appointed with sleek granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, crisp white cabinetry, a convenient breakfast bar and a welcoming dining area. The split-plan primary suite provides a private retreat, complete with an en suite bath featuring a granite-topped vanity, custom-tiled shower and spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy peaceful outdoor living on the relaxing covered patio with fenced backyard, complemented by a charming wrought-iron fenced courtyard in front of the home. With easy access to Grand Ave./Hwy 60, no HOA and all appliances included, this move-in-ready property offers comfort and convenience.

20. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $429,900 Closed 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    The Agave model offers 1,465 Sq. Ft. NOW COMPLETE! Eat-in kitchen with all appliances (except) refrigerator). Nice open floor plan with natural light throughout. Laundry area. Plumbed for water softener. Master bedroom bathroom with generous size closet. Back covered patio all on a 1.16-acre lot. No HOA. Minutes to Grand Ave, 303, Sun City, Trader Joe's, and more. Two homes available.

21. 2022-01-31
    status Pending 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    The Agave model offers 1,465 Sq. Ft. NOW COMPLETE! Eat-in kitchen with all appliances (except) refrigerator). Nice open floor plan with natural light throughout. Laundry area. Plumbed for water softener. Master bedroom bathroom with generous size closet. Back covered patio all on a 1.16-acre lot. No HOA. Minutes to Grand Ave, 303, Sun City, Trader Joe's, and more. Two homes available.

22. 2021-10-09
    listed $429,900 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    The Agave model offers 1,465 Sq. Ft. NOW COMPLETE! Eat-in kitchen with all appliances (except) refrigerator). Nice open floor plan with natural light throughout. Laundry area. Plumbed for water softener. Master bedroom bathroom with generous size closet. Back covered patio all on a 1.16-acre lot. No HOA. Minutes to Grand Ave, 303, Sun City, Trader Joe's, and more. Two homes available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,046/yr (+$87/mo · 66.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,266
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$1,988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$11,564
• Taxable loss: −$14,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,532
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wittmann, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Coming Soon $399,900 ARMLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $429,900 ARMLS
• 2022-01-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-10-09 Listed $429,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+90.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.