Carlsbad Plan

New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$418,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,209
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-1,930/mo
• Annual: $-23,156/yr
• Cap rate: 2.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.51%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $171,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 61d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At $2,911/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.