Carlsbad Plan · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$418,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · SingleFamily · 269 Days on market

Good condition $124/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover more room to live, play and grow in the 1-story Carlsbad floor plan, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage and 2,115 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept great room flows into the dining area, kitchen with an island and a covered lanai, perfect for indoor/outdoor living. 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom are near the front of the home, while the private primary suite is tucked away with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-inspired bathroom. A versatile flex room gives you space to design a home office, gym, or craft room-whatever fits your lifestyle. Plus, enjoy the convenience of the laundry room and entry just off your garage. And, you have options! • Optional gourmet kitchen • Optional 3-car garage • Optional outdoor kitchen • And more!

Key facts

• Versatile flex room
• Covered lanai
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $418,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $462,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 865 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,445 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $462,000
• List price: $418,999
• Delta: -9.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Moon Shell Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (-3%)	3mo	$495,000	$241	75
691 Moon Shell Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-10%)	1mo	$413,914	$218	71
6489 Cypress Springs Pkwy	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,163 (+2%)	0mo	$447,500	$207	66
3407 Bellino Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,278 (+8%)	3mo	$300,000	$132	62
3322 Modena Way	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,916 (-9%)	2mo	$550,000	$287	56
3398 Leonardo Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-7%)	1mo	$462,000	$234	55
1887 Creekwater Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (-9%)	1mo	$495,000	$256	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-136,828
• Equity at exit: $68,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-175,640
• Equity at exit: $39,945

Cash invested: $129,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $485,974 ($221/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32168

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,423
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$578 /mo · $6,930/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,198

Max offer price $303,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-774	-5% $-934	+0% $-1,093	+5% $-1,253	+10% $-1,413
Rent	-10% $-1,316	-5% $-1,205	+0% $-1,093	+5% $-982	+10% $-871
Rate	-1.0pp $-861	-0.5pp $-976	base $-1,093	+0.5pp $-1,213	+1.0pp $-1,335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,500
• Closing costs: $13,860
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6820 Stoneheath Ln Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	2047	$2,650	$1.29	10d	1	0.66mi
6807 Henno Ct Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	1726	$2,650	$1.54	133d	1	0.67mi
3369 Medici Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2495	$1,350	$0.54	36d	1	0.69mi
434 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,563	$2.55	10d	24	0.76mi
3451 Medici Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2372	$2,800	$1.18	155d	1	0.76mi
424 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1764	$2,595	$1.47	10d	4	0.92mi
6816 Amici Ct Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,500	$1.50	22d	1	0.92mi
3062 Isles Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2092	$3,400	$1.63	50d	1	0.99mi
3130 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	7d	1	1.00mi
1110 Crystal Creek Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,000	$1.58	51d	1	1.03mi
1110 Crystal Creek Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2092	$2,800	$1.34	10d	1	1.03mi
1789 Creekwater Blvd Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,650	$1.39	10d	1	1.06mi
1224 Siesta Key Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,650	$1.46	123d	1	1.07mi
524 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	164d	1	1.10mi
3078 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,100	$1.30	10d	1	1.10mi
426 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	164d	1	1.14mi
6723 Calistoga Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,400	$1.48	10d	1	1.15mi
406 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1779	$2,250	$1.26	22d	1	1.19mi
3036 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$3,000	$1.79	164d	1	1.19mi
6780 Calistoga Cir Unit NA Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,700	$1.50	160d	1	1.20mi
1161 Siesta Key Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$2,600	$1.38	108d	1	1.21mi
6790 Calistoga Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2500	$2,600	$1.04	164d	1	1.25mi
3257 Carpentaria Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,600	$1.40	2d	1	1.34mi
3257 Carpentaria Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,600	$1.40	10d	1	1.34mi
1748 Tributory Ln Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	2447	$2,895	$1.18	123d	1	1.34mi
1694 Arash Cir Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	2534	$3,300	$1.30	164d	1	1.36mi
1712 Arash Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,700	$1.83	51d	1	1.39mi
3231 Silas Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,150	$1.18	123d	1	1.40mi
2908 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1758	$2,700	$1.54	10d	1	1.41mi
326 Caryota Ct New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2508	$2,495	$0.99	10d	1	1.43mi
3210 Silas Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,100	$1.16	9d	1	1.43mi
2641 Neverland Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,500	$1.35	155d	1	1.48mi
6809 Forkmead Ln Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2003	$2,950	$1.47	51d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $124/mo · $1,488/yr

• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $418,999 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $418,999 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $418,999 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $418,999 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $418,999 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $418,999 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $418,999 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $418,999 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $418,999 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $418,999 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $418,999 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $418,999 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $418,999 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $418,999 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $418,999 Active 254 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $418,999 Active 253 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $418,999 Active 252 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $418,999 Active 251 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $418,999 Active 250 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $418,999 Active 249 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $418,999 Active 248 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $418,999 Active 247 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $418,999 Active 246 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $418,999 Active 245 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $418,999 Active 244 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $418,999 Active 243 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $418,999 Active 242 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $418,999 Active 241 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $418,999 Active 240 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $418,999 Active 239 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $418,999 Active 238 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $418,999 Active 237 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $418,999 Active 236 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $418,999 Active 235 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $418,999 Active 234 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $418,999 Active 233 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $418,999 Active 232 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $418,999 Active 231 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $418,999 Active 230 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $418,999 Active 229 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $418,999 Active 228 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $418,999 Active 227 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $418,999 Active 225 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $418,999 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $418,999 Active 222 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $418,999 Active 221 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $418,999 Active 220 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $418,999 Active 219 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $418,999 Active 218 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $418,999 Active 217 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,879
• − Property taxes: −$6,930
• − Insurance: −$2,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$13,440
• Taxable loss: −$21,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good ROI with minor updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chisholm Elementary School B+ FL #435/2,144 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,847
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.58%
• Current HPI: 350.4259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $411,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $406,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Listed $405,999 Zillow