Carlsbad Plan · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$418,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,115 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover more room to live, play and grow in the 1-story Carlsbad floor plan, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage and 2,115 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept great room flows into the dining area, kitchen with an island and a covered lanai, perfect for indoor/outdoor living. 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom are near the front of the home, while the private primary suite is tucked away with a spacious walk-in closet and spa-inspired bathroom. A versatile flex room gives you space to design a home office, gym, or craft room-whatever fits your lifestyle. Plus, enjoy the convenience of the laundry room and entry just off your garage. And, you have options! • Optional gourmet kitchen • Optional 3-car garage • Optional outdoor kitchen • And more!

Key facts

• Versatile flex room
• Covered lanai
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $418,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $612,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 61d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,911/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $291,102 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.51%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $612,000
• List price: $418,999
• Delta: -31.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3004 Borassus Dr	1.84mi	4/3.0	2,115 (0%)	0mo	$558,000	$264	61
3431 Torre Blvd	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-2)	1,973 (-7%)	0mo	$426,400	$216	60
2816 Neverland Dr	1.95mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+3%)	0mo	$390,000	$178	55
3455 Pegaso Ave	1.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,174 (+3%)	0mo	$412,500	$190	55
3321 Pintello Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-30%)	0mo	$364,000	$244	42
732 Oakwater Ln	2.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,867 (-12%)	0mo	$460,000	$246	40
2820 S Asciano Ct	2.02mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,314 (+9%)	0mo	$782,000	$338	40
3200 Monaco Blvd	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,709 (+28%)	0mo	$860,000	$317	36
6425 Saguaro Ct	1.70mi	4/3.0	2,451 (+16%)	0mo	$635,000	$259	36
211 Caryota Ct	1.82mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-24%)	0mo	$379,000	$235	35
3035 Nova Scotia Way	2.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-22%)	0mo	$325,000	$198	35
6456 Roseberry Ct	1.52mi	2/2.0 (-2)	1,510 (-29%)	0mo	$360,000	$238	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-214,216
• Equity at exit: $91,251

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-310,798
• Equity at exit: $52,915

Cash invested: $171,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 17 under contract
• Median asking: $483,450 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32168

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$765 /mo · $9,180/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-1,930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,354

Max offer price $332,771

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,507	-5% $-1,718	+0% $-1,930	+5% $-2,141	+10% $-2,353
Rent	-10% $-2,160	-5% $-2,045	+0% $-1,930	+5% $-1,815	+10% $-1,700
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,621	-0.5pp $-1,774	base $-1,930	+0.5pp $-2,088	+1.0pp $-2,250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,000
• Closing costs: $18,360
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6807 Henno Ct Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	1726	$2,650	$1.54	41d	1	0.67mi
434 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,459	$2.38	15d	11	0.76mi
3451 Medici Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2372	$2,800	$1.18	63d	1	0.76mi
3062 Isles Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2092	$4,000	$1.91	16d	1	0.99mi
1224 Siesta Key Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,650	$1.46	32d	1	1.07mi
524 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	72d	1	1.10mi
426 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	72d	1	1.14mi
3036 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$3,000	$1.79	72d	1	1.19mi
6780 Calistoga Cir Unit NA Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,700	$1.50	68d	1	1.20mi
1161 Siesta Key Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$2,600	$1.38	16d	1	1.21mi
6790 Calistoga Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2500	$2,600	$1.04	72d	1	1.25mi
1748 Tributory Ln Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	2447	$2,895	$1.18	32d	1	1.34mi
1694 Arash Cir Port Orange, FL	4.0	2.0	2534	$3,300	$1.30	72d	1	1.36mi
1712 Arash Cir Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,800	$1.90	41d	1	1.39mi
3231 Silas Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,150	$1.18	32d	1	1.40mi
2641 Neverland Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,500	$1.35	63d	1	1.48mi
6809 Forkmead Ln Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2003	$3,300	$1.65	60d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $418,999 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $418,999 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $418,999 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $418,999 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $418,999 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $418,999 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $418,999 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $418,999 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $418,999 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $418,999 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $418,999 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $418,999 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $418,999 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $418,999 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $418,999 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $418,999 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $418,999 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $418,999 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $418,999 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    price $418,999 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $413,999 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $413,999 Active 149 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $413,999 Active 148 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $413,999 Active 147 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $413,999 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $413,999 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $413,999 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $413,999 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $413,999 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $413,999 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $413,999 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $413,999 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $413,999 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $413,999 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $413,999 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $413,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $413,999 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $413,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $413,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $413,999 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $413,999 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-14
    days on market $413,999 Active 121 DOM
43. 2026-06-10
    days on market $413,999 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $413,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $413,999 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $413,999 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $413,999 Active 112 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $413,999 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $413,999 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $411,999 Active 109 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,282
• − Property taxes: −$9,180
• − Insurance: −$3,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,795
• − Management: −$2,795
• − Depreciation: −$17,804
• Taxable loss: −$34,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,396
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good ROI with minor updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chisholm Elementary School B+ FL #435/2,144 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,847
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.58%
• Current HPI: 350.4259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $411,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $406,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Listed $405,999 Zillow