209 Bear Run Dr

Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$229,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,129 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$211
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-164/mo
• Annual: $-1,972/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (18.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $188k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $175k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.