209 Bear Run Dr · Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$229,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1990 0.58 ac lot Est $207k · 11% over $211/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a new home, this may be the one you've been waiting for! A unique round home! Located on a double lot with a oversized 2 car garage and storage shed. Large wrap around deck with plenty of privacy! 2 bedrooms, 1 newly renovated bathroom. New LVP flooring, freshly painted, wood burning fireplace. Vaulted ceiling with wood beams. Open layout, kitchen features stainless appliances.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Unique round home
• Double lot

Tags

• UNIQUE ROUND HOME
• DOUBLE LOT
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Beech Mountain Lakes subdivision; Directions: Rt 309 to Beech Mtn Lakes, follow Edge Rock Dr to right on Bear Run Dr; house on the right
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,900

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Shed(s); Irregular, wooded lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Beech Mountain Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $175k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $188,221 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,607
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Bear Run Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,129 (0%)	1mo	$232,500	$206	99
203 Bear Run Cir	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-9%)	5mo	$148,000	$145	73
118 Buck Ridge Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+11%)	18mo	$229,900	$183	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $114,812
• Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $346,465
• Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18222

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,666/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$211
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $200,877

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-99	+0% $-164	+5% $-229	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-239	+0% $-164	+5% $-90	+10% $-16
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-106	base $-164	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $211 · $2,532/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $229,900 Active
3. 2022-11-16
   soldstatus $175,000
4. 2014-07-09
   soldstatus $65,000
5. 2012-03-26
   soldstatus $55,000
6. 2010-11-15
   soldstatus $1,106
7. 2006-12-06
   soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,649 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,666
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − HOA: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $-546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Beech Mountain Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #6837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beech Mountain Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,946

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.01%
• Current HPI: 302.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+116.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-07 Listed $229,900 LCAR
• 2022-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,106 Public Records
• 2006-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,666 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.