111 Jay St

Belle Chasse, LA 70037

$169,000B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,911 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $631/mo
• Annual: $7,570/yr
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-13.6%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 88 units permitted in Plaquemines Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plaquemines County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Belle Chasse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.