111 Jay St · Belle Chasse, LA 70037

$169,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,911 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Est $327k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0
• Rent growth +0.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper with strong upside potential. Home needs a new roof and significant interior renovation & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a full rehab. Three bedrooms, kitchen, den, living room, two baths, and detached garage. 1900 square feet. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood with solid resale potential after repairs. Located just north of the Belle Chasse bridge in Belle Chasse, LA. Flood insurance not required. Homes in this neighborhood typically sell for $250-$300k and more.

Key facts

• New roof
• Detached garage
• Listed 35 days

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Belle Chasse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-13.6%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 88 units permitted in Plaquemines Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Plaquemines County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,781
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2604 N Industry St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-10%)	9mo	$229,000	$133	73
118 Alpha St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,707 (-11%)	2mo	$264,000	$155	62
123 Summer Cypress Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,961 (+3%)	15mo	$375,000	$191	60
125 Beta St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-4%)	0mo	$359,000	$196	58
179 Sugarpine Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,747 (-9%)	2mo	$355,000	$203	47
11 Robert Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-10%)	18mo	$295,000	$171	40
233 Sugarpine Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-6%)	13mo	$269,900	$151	38
277 Cottonwood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,725 (-10%)	23mo	$260,000	$151	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,326
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $32,259
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70037

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $679	+0% $631	+5% $583	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $457	-5% $544	+0% $631	+5% $718	+10% $805
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $674	base $631	+0.5pp $587	+1.0pp $542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Planters Canal Rd Belle Chasse, LA	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,195	$1.19	24d	1	0.16mi
119 Planters Canal Rd Belle Chasse, LA	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,195	$1.19	44d	1	0.16mi
110 P St Unit B Belle Chasse, LA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,800	$1.91	2d	1	0.61mi
1028 Kingsway Dr W Gretna, LA	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	24d	1	0.78mi
103 Cypress Bnd Belle Chasse, LA	4.0	3.0	2414	$3,900	$1.62	19d	1	0.86mi
2434 Ashland Pl N Gretna, LA	4.0	2.5	2300	$4,500	$1.96	44d	1	0.99mi
937 E Monterey Ct Apt B Terrytown, LA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	24d	1	1.02mi
937 E Monterey Ct Apt D Terrytown, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	24d	1	1.02mi
917 Monterey Ct S Unit b Gretna, LA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	1.07mi
528 Grovewood Dr Gretna, LA	4.0	2.0	1525	$2,200	$1.44	24d	1	1.08mi
916 E Monterey Ct Unit A Terrytown, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	44d	1	1.09mi
841 Fairfax Dr Gretna, LA	4.0	2.5	2600	$2,250	$0.87	15d	1	1.10mi
115 Nu St Belle Chasse, LA	4.0	2.5	2600	$2,900	$1.12	12d	1	1.10mi
132 Layburn Ct Terrytown, LA	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	5d	1	1.14mi
2424 Park Place Dr Gretna, LA	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,200	$1.42	22d	1	1.18mi
2337 Park Place Dr Gretna, LA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,650	$0.92	44d	1	1.22mi
2448 Oxford Pl Gretna, LA	3.0	2.5	1514	$1,600	$1.06	24d	1	1.22mi
2350 Park Place Dr Gretna, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	44d	5	1.32mi
520 Wall Blvd Gretna, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,545	$1.54	44d	9	1.41mi
201 Wall Blvd Gretna, LA	3.0	2.0	2220	$2,500	$1.13	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $169,000 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $169,000 Active 530-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $6,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Belle Chasse

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belle Chasse, LA
• County: Plaquemines Parish · 16,639 people
• City population: 16,639
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 16,639
• Household income: $98,983
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 453.0

Population outlook (Plaquemines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,526 people
• By 2030: 24,843 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 25,441 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 26,074 · +6.3%
• By 2075: 28,300 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 30,195 · +23.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plaquemines

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.4% · R 68.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.25%
• Current HPI: 165.3973
• Rent YoY: ▼ -13.63%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $169,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,059 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.